Impacts of different wind speed models and reliability indices on capacity credit evaluation of wind power

At present the research on wind power capacity credit is pressed for a foundation in the selection of wind speed models and reliability indices. For this reason, we compare the effects of using observed wind speeds, average observed wind speeds, probability sampling, and time series analysis to assess the reliability of wind integrated generating systems, and the reasons causing the differences are analyzed. Reliability indices such as the probability, frequency, duration, and the amount of lost load under the at-risk, marginal, and healthy states in the well-being framework are applied to the assessment of wind power capacity credit, respectively. Using the solving method for capacity credit based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation, and through the wind integrated IEEE-RTS combining with two scenarios of wind speed, the impacts of different wind speed models and reliability indices on reliability of generating systems and wind power capacity credit are contrasted and analyzed, and according to the demand on the assessment the suggestions on selecting a wind speed model are given.