TY - GEN
T1 - Household energy consumption in China
T2 - 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012
AU - Zhu, Qing
AU - Guo, Yujing
AU - Feng, Genfu
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from 1980 to 2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What's more, changes in energy consumption in the period of "the 12th five year plan" are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.
AB - In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from 1980 to 2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What's more, changes in energy consumption in the period of "the 12th five year plan" are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.
KW - ARIMA
KW - BVAR
KW - Household energy consumption (HEC)
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84867903930
U2 - 10.1109/CSO.2012.150
DO - 10.1109/CSO.2012.150
M3 - 会议稿件
AN - SCOPUS:84867903930
SN - 9780769546902
T3 - Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012
SP - 654
EP - 659
BT - Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012
Y2 - 23 June 2012 through 26 June 2012
ER -
