Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015

Qing Zhu; Yujing Guo; Genfu Feng

doi:10.1109/CSO.2012.150

Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015

Qing Zhu
, Yujing Guo
, Genfu Feng

School of Economics and Finance (SOEF)

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

13 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from 1980 to 2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What's more, changes in energy consumption in the period of "the 12th five year plan" are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012
Pages	654-659
Number of pages	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/CSO.2012.150
State	Published - 2012
Event	2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012 - Harbin, Heilongjiang, China Duration: 23 Jun 2012 → 26 Jun 2012

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012

Conference

Conference	2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012
Country/Territory	China
City	Harbin, Heilongjiang
Period	23/06/12 → 26/06/12

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Keywords

ARIMA
BVAR
Household energy consumption (HEC)

Access to Document

10.1109/CSO.2012.150

Cite this

Zhu, Q., Guo, Y., & Feng, G. (2012). Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015. In Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012 (pp. 654-659). Article 6274811 (Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012). https://doi.org/10.1109/CSO.2012.150

@inproceedings{ac2dda0bd02b437ca14bb529c3649efd,

title = "Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015",

abstract = "In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from 1980 to 2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What's more, changes in energy consumption in the period of {"}the 12th five year plan{"} are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.",

keywords = "ARIMA, BVAR, Household energy consumption (HEC)",

author = "Qing Zhu and Yujing Guo and Genfu Feng",

year = "2012",

doi = "10.1109/CSO.2012.150",

language = "英语",

isbn = "9780769546902",

series = "Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012",

pages = "654--659",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012",

note = "2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012 ; Conference date: 23-06-2012 Through 26-06-2012",

}

Zhu, Q, Guo, Y & Feng, G 2012, Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015. in Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012., 6274811, Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012, pp. 654-659, 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China, 23/06/12. https://doi.org/10.1109/CSO.2012.150

Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015. / Zhu, Qing; Guo, Yujing; Feng, Genfu.
Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012. 2012. p. 654-659 6274811 (Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Household energy consumption in China

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AU - Zhu, Qing

AU - Guo, Yujing

AU - Feng, Genfu

PY - 2012

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N2 - In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from 1980 to 2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What's more, changes in energy consumption in the period of "the 12th five year plan" are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.

AB - In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from 1980 to 2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What's more, changes in energy consumption in the period of "the 12th five year plan" are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.

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KW - Household energy consumption (HEC)

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Zhu Q, Guo Y, Feng G. Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015. In Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012. 2012. p. 654-659. 6274811. (Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012). doi: 10.1109/CSO.2012.150

Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015

Abstract

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UN SDGs

Keywords

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