Hong Kong’s middle class and the Anti-ELAB movement: generational and identity-based mobilization

The relationship between economic development and democratization is increasingly relevant to social movement research. While modernization theory suggests that an expanding middle class fosters democratic engagement, empirical findings remain mixed. Hong Kong provides a compelling case to examine this paradox: despite its affluent economy and sizable middle class, its democratic development remains constrained. This study examines how subjective class identity, cohort experience, and political identity-shaped participation in Hong Kong’s 2019 Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill (Anti-ELAB) movement–a protest wave that began with opposition to the bill and broadened into citywide pro-democracy mobilization. Using data from 3,500 respondents collected via respondent-driven sampling, we show that a self-perceived middle-class status–not objective measures like homeownership–predicts protest participation. The post-80s generation, raised during economic prosperity yet under tightening political conditions, participates more than older cohorts. An exclusive ‘Hongkonger’ identity further elevates engagement. These findings demonstrate how subjective class identification, generational political socialization, and identity formation jointly drive mobilization in semi-democracies, integrating political opportunity, post-materialist, and identity-based theories and offering broader implications for middle-class activism in constrained settings.