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Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index

  • Shaolong Sun
  • , Shouyang Wang
  • , Yunjie Wei
  • , Xianduan Yang
  • , Kwok Leung Tsui
  • CAS - Academy of Mathematics and System Sciences
  • University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • City University of Hong Kong

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

The queries entered into search engines register hundreds of millions of different searches by tourists, not only reflecting the trends of the searchers' preferences for travel products, but also offering a forecasting of their future travel behavior. This paper proposed a forecasting framework based on internet search index and machine learning to forecast tourist arrivals, and compared the forecasting performance of two different search engines data, Baidu and Google. The empirical results suggest that the proposed KELM models by fusing Baidu index and Google index can significantly improve the forecasting performance and outperform other benchmark models in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2017 IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2017
EditorsJian-Yun Nie, Zoran Obradovic, Toyotaro Suzumura, Rumi Ghosh, Raghunath Nambiar, Chonggang Wang, Hui Zang, Ricardo Baeza-Yates, Ricardo Baeza-Yates, Xiaohua Hu, Jeremy Kepner, Alfredo Cuzzocrea, Jian Tang, Masashi Toyoda
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages4165-4169
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9781538627143
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jul 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event5th IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2017 - Boston, United States
Duration: 11 Dec 201714 Dec 2017

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2017 IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2017
Volume2018-January

Conference

Conference5th IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2017
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityBoston
Period11/12/1714/12/17

Keywords

  • Tourism forecasting
  • big data analytics
  • composite search index
  • kernel extreme learning machine
  • search query data

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