Effects of circadian heart rate variation on short-term and long-term mortality in intensive care unit patients: A retrospective cohort study based on MIMIC-II database

Objective To investigate the effect of circadian heart rate variation on short-term and long-term mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted. A total of 32 536 ICU patients were recorded from 2001 to 2008 published by Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II v2.6) in April 2011. The circadian heart rate variation was defined as the ratio of mean nighttime (23:00 to 07:00) heart rate to mean daytime (07:00 to 23:00) heart rate. The 28-day mortality and 1-year mortality were defined as outcome events. The information such as age, gender, ethnicity, first sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, first simplified acute physiology score I(SAPSI), usage of sedatives and catecholamines within 24 hours admission of ICU, clinical complications [hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes with or without complications, congestive heart failure, liver disease, renal failure, etc.], and the complete heart rate records within 24 hours after ICU admission were collected. Cox proportional risk regression models were used to investigate the association between circadian heart rate variation and 28-day mortality and 1-year mortality in ICU patients. Besides, subgroup analysis was also performed in patients with different first SOFA scores. Results Totally 15 382 ICU patients in MIMIC-II database were enrolled, excluding the patients without heart rate records or death records, using pacemaker with arrhythmia, without SOFA or SAPSIscore records. Finally, 9 439 patients were enrolled in the study cohort. 1 Cox regression analysis of the whole patient showed that the higher circadian heart rate variation was correlated with the increased 28-day mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.613, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.338-1.943, P < 0.001] and 1-year mortality (HR = 1.573, 95%CI was 1.296-1.908, P < 0.001). After adjustment for demographic factors (age, gender and ethnicity), severity of illness (SOFA and SAPS Iscores), clinical complications (hypertension, COPD, diabetes with or without complications, congestive heart failure, liver disease, renal failure, etc.), and influence of medications (sedatives and catecholamines), the night-day heart rate ratio was also correlated with 28-day mortality (HR = 1.256, 95%CI was 1.018-1.549, P = 0.033) and 1-year mortality (HR = 1.249, 95%CI was 1.010-1.545, P = 0.040). 2 According to the SOFA score (median value of 5), the patients were divided into two subgroups, in which 5 478 patients with SOFA score ≤ 5 and 3 961 patients with SOFA score > 5. Cox regression subgroup analysis showed that circadian heart rate variation was related with higher 28-day mortality (HR = 1.430, 95%CI was 1.164-1.756, P = 0.001) and 1-year mortality (HR = 1.393, 95%CI was 1.123-1.729, P = 0.003) in patients with SOFA score > 5. After adjustment for covariates, the 28-day mortality (HR = 1.279, 95%CI was 1.032-1.584, P = 0.025) and 1-year mortality (HR = 1.255, 95%CI was 1.010-1.558, P = 0.040) also increased with the increasing of night-day heart rate ratio in patients with SOFA score > 5. However, the relationships did not exist in patients with SOFA score ≤ 5. Conclusion In ICU patients, the 28-day mortality and 1-year mortality increase with the higher circadian heart rate variation, which indicates that the circadian heart rate variation in ICU patients is positively correlated with the short-term and long-term mortality, especially in patients with relatively severe illness.