Du-Bus: A Realtime Bus Waiting Time Estimation System Based On Multi-Source Data

Realtime bus waiting time information is of great importance to the intelligent public transportation system and is beneficial for improving user satisfaction by online map services. While there are limited realtime bus waiting time services in a city, because of the expensive cost of sensor deployment and sophisticated traffic conditions. To address the above problem, we propose Du-Bus, a multi-source data fusion based system, which estimates the realtime bus waiting time based on approximating the realtime locations of buses without GPS sensors, by a variety of urban datasets, including historical bus trip data reported by a limited number of GPS equipped buses, transportation network data, traffic condition data, user mobility data, and temporal data. Du-Bus approximates the realtime locations of buses without GPS sensors by jointly modeling the bus timetable and the bus realtime travel time, which can be estimated by a variety of data sources. Specifically, we first propose a BiLSTM based end-to-end model for each bus route to estimate the bus departure interval and generate the corresponding departure timetable. Then, we estimate the travel time for each individual bus via a deep neural network component by incorporating the traffic conditions, geolocation, and map query information. Finally, we estimate the bus waiting time for arbitrary stations in the city by jointly modeling the estimated bus departure timetable and travel time. We evaluate our system on two real-world datasets, and the results verify the effectiveness of Du-Bus compared with historical average based and headway based methods. Since early 2019, Du-Bus has been deployed on Baidu Maps, one of the world's largest map services, servicing over 20 major cities in China.