Development trend forecasting for value-added and employment under the influence of sub-prime crisis

Sub-prime crisis and China's macro-policies has made the import & export growth rate falling down rapidly after July 2008. This paper analyzes the time-lagged influence mechanism of the two factors on the foreign trade, uses extended input-output table in non-competitive imports type of China to calculate the influence on the value-added and employment in China, and forecasts the degree of these influences, The analysis results show that the domestic value-added of China's processing exports is more sensitive to the export increase rate changes than that of non-processing exports. Tourism sector, culture, sports and entertainment sector, petroleum processing sector, and texitile and Apparel Sector are relatively sensitive to the export increase rate changes, Due to the time-lagged characteristics of the conduction mechanism of subprime crisis to China's economy through foreign trade and of the macro-policy from implementing to working, China' s foreign trade increase rate will be likely to drop. In 2008, direct value-added produced by total exports will reduce $ 2 rnillion, and employment will reduce by 7927 thousand people. The influence will be more serious in 2009.