Data-Driven Identification Model of Vulnerable Set for Cascading Failure in Power Grid

The frequent blackouts around the world in the past 20 years have brought the security of the power grid to a head. Among various hazard situations, cascading failure is the one with critical threats due to its widespread propagation and long duration. An effective way to prevent cascading failure is to identify the vulnerable set, which is defined as the composition of transmission line combinations that can initialize the sequence of failures. In this paper, we first elaborate cascading failure model and its adaptation under the scenario of interest. Then a novel framework of data-driven identification model is developed to replace the traditional flow-based detection process, which is computationally heavy. Specifically, a method that seamlessly achieves the globally topological features embedding by designing a tailored messaging mechanism adjusted for the power grid is proposed, overcoming the otherwise problem of the constrained neighborhood in existing graph convolution networks (GCNs). Besides, with the proposed pruning optimization method, the sparsity of the vulnerable set can be naturally enforced and combinatorial explosion is readily alleviated. Numerical experiments are conducted on 30-bus, 200-bus, and 500-bus systems, including static and dynamic load scenarios. All of them verify the excellent performance of the identification model for both effectiveness and efficiency. Note to Practitioners - This paper is motivated by a practical need for mitigate the security threat of cascading failures to power grid through the vulnerable set identification. Existing methods for identifying the vulnerable set have limitations, including a limited number of vulnerabilities identified and challenges related to the high time complexity of cascading failure simulators and combinatorial explosion. To address this issue, we develop a data-driven identification model that integrates both the physical and topological features of the power grid. This model reduces the reliance on cascading failure simulators and enhances the efficiency of vulnerable set identification. Additionally, the pruning optimization method is proposed to further mitigate the high time complexity caused by combinatorial explosion. Simulative studies conduct in both dynamic and static load scenarios validate the performance of the developed data-driven model, demonstrating its ability to achieve rapid identification of the vulnerable set and thereby improve the overall robustness of the power grid against cascading failures.