Comprehensive evaluations on carbon emission forecasting and effective emission reduction strategies for industrial parks in China

Industrial zones are crucial in advancing industrialization and play a vital role in achieving emission goals. According to the national climate change mitigation strategy, industrial parks are identified as central to the green transformation of the industrial sector. Taking an industrial park cluster in Jiangsu Province as the research object, this paper puts forward an integrated research framework of data-driven, scenario-simulation and dynamic optimization, and examines carbon emission forecasting and reduction strategies for the cluster. Therefore, a dynamic system model of the economy-energy-environment nexus is constructed based on accounting results and planning objectives to achieve scenario-based targets and analyze energy conservation and emission reduction potential. Furthermore, by utilizing an enhanced Kaya identity and the LEAP model, a hybrid carbon emission model is developed. The study introduces green development scenario (GDS), low-carbon development scenario (LDS), and technology development scenario (TDS) based on the baseline scenario (BAS), which is simulated through the system dynamics model, and evaluates the carbon emission status of the industrial park cluster via static scenario analysis and dynamic uncertainty simulation. The findings indicate that under the BAS, emissions for the industrial park are projected to reach 1180 MtCO2e by 2035. Compared to the BAS, the GDS, LDS, and TDS offer emission reductions of 26.2 %, 38.9 %, and 44.1 %, respectively. Dynamic simulations reveal that the TDS has an 88.0 % probability of achieving the peak target, with an average peak value of 690 MtCO₂e. Consequently, the TDS constitutes the most feasible development strategy for the industrial park cluster, and the green development strategy is proposed from reducing the carbon intensity of energy supply, promoting low-carbon transformation and exploring the construction of new energy supply mode. The study provides low-carbon development recommendations based on carbon emission measurements and industrial park development plans, offering strategic insights for crafting emission reduction plans.