China’s economic strategy in post-communist nations: trade, FDI, and infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative

In China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) expansion into post-communist economies, this paper explores the evolving trade and investment relationships between China and ten transitioning nations. Using advanced models like the Gravity Model of Trade and XGBoost, the study analyzes how GDP, institutional quality, infrastructure investments, and trade agreements influence foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade flows from 2000 to 2023. The results highlight the importance of strong institutions and policy frameworks in fostering economic ties, while infrastructure projects under the BRI help overcome geographic challenges. Case studies on Russia and Kazakhstan reveal how energy and transport investments strategically enhance China’s economic influence in these regions.