Abstract
An important feature of smart grid is the intelligent power distribution function based on electricity consumption forecasting with high accuracy. Accurate prediction of electricity consumption is the key indicator of power intelligence. As a result of this, this paper combines Gaussian orthogonal method with gray prediction model and constructs a new grey orthogonal forecast model-NGGM(1, 1), which is used in electricity demand forecasting in smart grid. This model can solve the forecasting problem of non-isometric series, greatly improve the accuracy of prediction model, optimize data quality, strengthen the intelligence on operation and deployment, and provide more realistic, workable scientific reference for the decision support of smart grid. Finally, the proposed method is applied to predict the industrial electricity consumption of Jiangsu province in 2008. The results prove the effectiveness of the method.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 141-145+151 |
| Journal | Dianli Xitong Baohu yu Kongzhi/Power System Protection and Control |
| Volume | 38 |
| Issue number | 21 |
| State | Published - 1 Nov 2010 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Electricity demand forecasting
- NGGM(1, 1) model
- Orthogonal interpolation
- Smart grid