An improved algorithm for probabilistic production simulation of power systems with wind power

The volatility and intermittency of wind power may increase dynamic cost concerned with unit startup, shutdown, reserve and peak regulation. The traditional probabilistic production simulation ignores chronological load characters, which cannot account for the dynamic cost. To solve this difficulty, the transition frequency analysis is brought into the probabilistic production simulation framework, and a modified equivalent energy and frequency function method is proposed. This method takes unit startup and shutdown into account by convoluting equivalent load frequency curves (ELFCs), and therefore includes the dynamic cost in the consideration of production costing. With the proposed algorithm and the wind power integrated EPRI-36 test system, the impact of the wind farms on reliability metric and more holistic cost information including fuel cost, environmental cost and dynamic cost is discussed, and the impact of the wind power scale on dynamic cost rate is also studied. It indicates that with the wind power integrated, despite more dynamic cost, the system reliability is improved and the total cost is reduced, and the dynamic cost rate increases with the wind power expansion.