A Failure Tree Model for Cascading Failure in Power Grid with Uncertain Renewable Energy Generation

The increasing penetration of renewable energy generation (REG) introduces high levels of uncertainty into power grid, potentially causing significant impacts on the evolution of cascading failure. In this paper, we propose a failure tree model that encompasses all possible failure paths resulting from the uncertain power injections from REG to describe the dynamic process of cascading failure in power grid. In order to obtain the failure paths of cascading failure, we propose an interval overload tripping mechanism to model relay protection based on the uncertainty set of REG and dynamic interval power flow. On the basis of the proposed model, we design a forward-backward tree search to efficiently evaluate the impact of the uncertain REG on cascading failure. Compared with the probabilistic power flow (PPF) model and scenario-based model, the simulation results of our model are more accurate because the statistical distribution of demand loss in our model is closer to Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The efficiency of the proposed simulation method is demonstrated by comparing our model with the MCS under various sample numbers and two existing models. Finally, we analyze the influence of REG uncertainty level and penetration level on cascading failure and simulation performance. Note to Practitioners - To achieve accurate and fast cascading failure analysis in power grid with renewable energy generation (REG), this paper develops a failure tree model that considers the impact of uncertain injected power of REG on the dynamic process of cascading failure. In the model, the dynamic interval power flow and interval overload tripping mechanism are proposed to simulate the physical responses during cascading failure, including power flow redistribution, transmission branch outage and frequency regulation. Therefore, the model is more accurate in describing the actual characteristics of cascading failure in power grid with REG. This will facilitate the development and evaluation of control strategies aimed at improving the stability of power grid. Meanwhile, the model provides a good example for researchers and engineers to simulate network systems without detailed information about the probability distribution of uncertain injection variables. Based on the proposed model, we develop a forward-backward tree search, which allows the decision-maker to make a satisfactory trade-off between accuracy and time consumption. This algorithm allows for fast control strategy implementation to prevent failure propagation.