能源转型下新能源电力系统概率风险评估

In the context of energy transition in China, the uncertainty from a high proportion of new energy has made the deterministic risk assessment unable to ensure safe and reliable operation of power system under the 'carbon peaking and carbon neutral' background. Probabilistic risk assessment is an effective tool to evaluate the risk of high uncertainty system, which aims to break through the limitation that the deterministic risk assessment based on the long-term average numerical characteristics of risk cannot distinguish the events with high probability and low loss from those with low probability and high loss. Firstly, this paper expounds the urgency for probabilistic risk assessment of new energy power system(PRANEPS). Then, PRANEPS is summarized including the meaning, application status of probabilistic risk assessment and characteristics of PRANEPS. Further, on the basis of the research status of risk assessment, this paper discusses the key issues of PRANEPS from four aspects of risk modeling, risk assessment, risk analysis and risk decision, such as the output model and failure mode of new energy, the core algorithm and calculation efficiency of probabilistic risk assessment, the multi-level probability index system and weak part recognition method, the operation mode and equipment spare planning decision-making. In the future, it is urgent to study temporal and spatial correlation between new energy and load, as well as dependent failure mode of new energy, probabilistic risk full distribution algorithm and improved calculation efficiency method, multi-level index and weak part recognition system for different risk types based on partitioned multi-objective risk method (PMRM), decision-making method considering probabilistic risk index in the objective function or constraint of optimization model.