电 -碳 耦 合 市 场 的 推 测 变 差 均 衡

With the application of the carbon-emission cap-and-trade mechanism, electricity producers have coupled the electricity market and carbon-emission market, which operate independently, due to their electricity production functions and carbon-emission characteristics. First, in order to show how each market agent in electricity-carbon coupling markets exercises market power and influences market prices in an oligopolistic environment, the conjectural variation coefficient is used to describe its strategic behavior, and a conjectural variation equilibrium model for electricity-carbon coupling markets is established. Then, starting from the definition, it is proved that the essence of the carbon-emission price in the market equilibrium solution is the dual multiplier of the carbon-emission cap balance constraint, reflecting its volatility characteristics determined by the supply and demand of carbon-emission cap. Finally, numerical results from different scenarios in the IEEE 9-bus test system are compared to demonstrate the impact of factors such as transmission line congestion, market competition modes, generation cost, and carbon-emission cap on the market equilibrium. And the incentive effect of the carbon-emission cap-and-trade mechanism on the renewable energy generation and its control effect on total carbon emissions are illustrated taking the actual Gansu power system in China as an example.