中国省际差异化能源转型背景下的CO₂排放预测

In order to promote the transformation of China's energy consumption and reduce CO₂ emissions, this paper first uses the club convergence test method to conduct a detailed empirical study of the differences in the inter-provincial evolution of different types of fossil energy consumption. Then, based on the results of convergence clustering, a hierarchical (group) forecasting method is used to predict shortterm CO₂ emissions at different levels. The results show that due to the different dependence of economic development on coal consumption, coal consumption of various provinces converges to three levels. Driven by the energy intensity and structural effects, the province's oil and natural gas consumption have generally converged upward. The forecasts indicate that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will be dominated by coal, which is dominated by the 13 provinces in clubs2. Meanwhile, oil consumption will increase CO₂ emissions, natural gas will reduce total emissions, and provincial CO₂ emissions and its growth rates will still have large differences. These findings have important implications for the establishment of specific regional energy consumption and emission policies: clubs2's provinces are key areas for controlling coal consump- tion and reducing CO₂ emissions; strictly controlling oil consumption in high-income and heavy-industry provinces will further reduce total CO₂ emissions.